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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."