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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.